Game

Time

Situation




Notes: these are ESTIMATES; please use accordingly. On 4th and 1, the model cannot know whether it's a long 1 or a short 1. Shorter distance would favor going. Do not use this in overtime. Use with EXTREME CAUTION in the final minute of a game as the model is not good with end of game clock scenarios.



Notes: Data from @nflfastR. A thank you to Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) for hosting an updating source for game results and to Thomas Mock (@thomas_mock) for code to make the table look better. Website by Ben Baldwin (@benbbaldwin). Model writeup coming at some point...